Biden Murdered the Credibility of Crime Statistics for Political Gain
In the chaotic era of the Biden presidency, confusion and manipulation were the only constants. Despite their relentless drive to craft a favorable reality for the 2024 election, the American people saw through the facade. This involved the core issue of public safety: homicide statistics. The administration's disturbing revisions to murder statistics, stretching as far back as 2003, revealed a troubling willingness to manipulate both current narratives and historical realities to suit their political agenda.
James D. Agresti, through Just Facts, has been a lone sentinel uncovering the discrepancies in FBI crime data, a fact that should alarm every American concerned about truth, transparency, and trust in their government. With the evidence he's gathered, it becomes clear that this administration is not just tinkering with the present but is actively reshaping the past to fit their version of events. Let us dive deeper into how these revisions occurred and why they represent such a dangerous precedent for governance.
The FBI’s Revisionist Approach to Murder Statistics
Agresti's investigation reveals that during the Biden administration, the FBI engaged in sweeping revisions of murder data from 2003 onward without providing any explanation, footnotes, or clarifications. Where the normal procedure might see a minor adjustment and appropriate annotation, the Biden-era FBI saw fit to rewrite entire years. In some cases, the murder count was increased significantly, by up to 7%, and these modifications came without any of the usual footnoted disclosures that have typically accompanied data revisions. These alterations paint an alarming picture of data obfuscation.
To fully grasp the magnitude of these changes, consider this: the FBI raised the 2003 murder estimate from 16,528 to 17,716—an increase of 1,188 murders, or 7%. Such a revision suggests not just a simple clerical oversight but the rewriting of the historical record itself. Even in the Trump and Obama eras, where revisions occasionally occurred, changes were neither so drastic nor so frequent. Yet under Biden, the trend of such revisions has exploded. The data gathered by Agresti illustrate this rising gap—from 2003 to today, discrepancies between FBI data and death certificates widened into a gulf, growing to an average of 3,711 uncounted homicides per year under Biden - each of the edits designed to make Biden's record look better than it was.
One of the key points here is the differential between the number of homicides recorded on death certificates and those reported by the FBI. Death certificates are not aspirational; they represent a grim and immutable finality—a dead body, a life lost. Despite their reliability, death certificates have always been more complete than FBI murder reports, simply because they capture every death and categorically classify it. The gap between these figures has always existed, but it has widened considerably under the Biden administration, suggesting foul play, either in local law enforcement reporting, state compilations, or FBI aggregation. In any case, it reeks of political calculation.
Disguising the Reality of Rising Crime
Why would this administration want to downplay murder statistics? The answer is simple: politics. Crime is not an abstract issue; it is viscerally felt by voters, and it reflects the state of the nation's social contract. As crime rates surged during Biden's term, public safety became a significant electoral liability for the Democrats. Therefore, downplaying homicide numbers—even if it meant tinkering with historic records—serves a political end. It creates the illusion of competence where none exists.
President Biden and his Department of Justice have taken cues from Orwell's 1984, where history is continuously rewritten to serve the Party's ends. In 2023, for instance, the FBI reduced the previously reported 2021 murder estimate from 22,536 to 21,462—a reduction of over 1,000 murders, or about 5%. No explanation accompanied this drastic change, leaving Americans to wonder if we’re witnessing bureaucratic incompetence, political manipulation, or both.
This level of deceit is not simply a matter of misrepresentation; it represents a violation of the public trust. How can we properly address the crime issue in this country if we cannot trust the very numbers that inform policy? If the numbers can be revised and manipulated so easily, how can the public hold anyone accountable? As Agresti stated, “The FBI has been burying its crime data since the first year of the Biden administration.”
Bureaucratic Subterfuge: Hiding Data from Public Scrutiny
The manipulation of crime data is compounded by the Biden administration’s calculated effort to bury access to FBI crime statistics. Since 2021, the traditional “Crime in the United States” report, which had served as a straightforward, easily accessible source for annual crime data, has been buried under layers of bureaucracy. Now, these datasets are scattered across an array of dropdown menus, vague descriptions, and expiring hyperlinks, reducing transparency and, perhaps more importantly, concealing the shocking rise in crime.
Consider the scenario Agresti describes: in 2022, NewsNation reported that 14,677 murders occurred in 2021 based on the FBI’s convoluted and confusing presentation of its data. In reality, the actual estimate was 22,900—8,000 more deaths than reported. These obfuscations serve to mislead the public, downplaying the scope of violent crime and providing a convenient shield for political leaders.
A Crisis in Accountability
The heart of the issue lies not just in the manipulation of data but in the erosion of accountability it represents. The leaders of the FBI and DOJ are appointed by the president, and their actions clearly reflect the priorities of the administration. Instead of serving the American public through transparent reporting, these institutions have twisted the facts to fit a narrative—one that paints the Biden administration as capable and competent while hiding the realities faced by everyday citizens.
Such conduct should concern every American, regardless of political leanings. When the government manipulates data—whether it’s economic statistics like job growth or, as in this case, life-and-death metrics like murder rates—it breaks the fundamental trust that exists between a government and its citizens. Without trust, governance itself falters, giving way to conspiracy theories, paranoia, and unrest. The Biden administration is playing with fire by attempting to shape reality to fit its narrative. The consequences will inevitably be felt not only in public safety but in the very fabric of democracy itself.
The Biden Administration: A Legacy of Revisionism
As Agresti has demonstrated, the revisions during Biden’s presidency are unprecedented in scope and audacity. Beyond the murder statistics, it is worth noting that this penchant for deception extends into other areas of governance. One notable example involves the employment numbers, which were overestimated month after month and then quietly revised down—at one point by nearly a million jobs. The administration's strategy is transparent: make a good first impression and hope the correction goes unnoticed.
In a broader historical context, this kind of manipulation is not new. The Democratic Party has a storied history of deception, stretching back to its opposition to civil rights movements, school integration, and its manipulative approach to social issues like immigration. Today, as in the past, the party is willing to rewrite history to maintain power. However, unlike earlier times when information took months or years to spread, today’s digital age has made this duplicity more transparent—if the public is willing to look.
Conclusion: The Need for Vigilance and Transparency
The Biden administration’s alterations to the nation’s murder statistics are emblematic of a deeper, systemic issue within our government—one that prioritizes political expediency over the truth. James D. Agresti, through his Freedom of Information Act requests and diligent research, has shown us that what we face is not just a statistical anomaly but a deliberate attempt to deceive the American people.
As citizens, we must demand better. We must demand transparency, accountability, and, above all, honesty from those we entrust with power. The manipulation of murder statistics is not just a question of bureaucratic procedure—it is a fundamental breach of public trust, one that demands scrutiny, outrage, and, ultimately, reform. The Biden administration might be able to manipulate the present, but the truth—painful, immutable, and ultimately liberating—will prevail.
James D. Agresti is the president and cofounder of Just Facts, an institute focused on publishing facts about public policies and teaching research skills. With two decades of experience in public policy research, his work has been cited by a wide array of sources, including CBS, Fox News, Vanderbilt University, and the Encyclopedia Britannica.
Agresti's research has been praised by experts across various fields, from economics to engineering, while also being accessible enough to be included in middle and high school curricula. He holds a B.S. in mechanical engineering from Brown University and has a background in engineering, technical sales, and helicopter customization. Agresti is also the author of 'Rational Conclusions,' a scholarly book supporting the Bible with evidence from diverse academic fields.
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